Risk Analysis

Complementing the supply and demand perspective, the main input for the risk analysis is formed by an expert survey that sought to establish how European transport manufacturers along the entire value chain perceive the most severe global and regional risks, the prevalent technological and communication revolution, developments around international trade and market access, and cross-sectoral collaboration. In addition, the survey intends to provide industrial insights regarding requirements for changes in business strategies and European industrial and competitiveness policies in light of the expected future competitive landscape.

VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH 2018

Through a survey among 69 high-level experts from the four main European transport manufacturing segments, this assessment identified the following highlights:

  • The European transport manufacturing industry is optimistic about technology developments; emerging technologies are largely perceived as opportunities for future competitiveness, not as risk.
  • European transport manufacturers are concerned about future access to sufficiently qualified employees, particularly given the fast developments in emerging technologies and the increasing risk of cyber incidents.
  • Transport manufacturers are also concerned about strong competition stemming from new business models, new entrants, and particularly from Chinese manufacturers.
  • Protectionism and hence reduced market access to major markets of interest is perceived as a likely risk, and the most severe impacts for the industry are considered to be a deterioration of competitiveness and loss of revenues.
  • Cross-sectoral collaboration is seen as desirable for increasing the future competitiveness in the industry, but different regulatory frameworks and work practice/culture are considered to be important barriers. For achieving cross-sectoral collaboration, strategic partnerships are the preferred industrial collaboration model.
VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH 2018